Sentiment Dashboard - VIX, P/C, AAII, COT, Social

Introduction: End of Chaos, Start of System

You have 5 tools:

• VIX, Fear&Greed, Put/Call, Skew
• Social: LunarCrush, Twitter, Reddit
• Narratives: AI, halving, wars, ETF
• DIX, GEX, 0DTE flow
• AAII, NAAIM, COT

Each alone is noise. Together it’s system with edge.

Problem of 90% traders? They have 10 indicators, each says different, so they ignore all. Or see VIX 40 and buy, but AAII Bulls 60% and social euphoria - and lose because didn’t see whole picture.

Sentiment dashboard is your pilot cockpit. You don’t fly looking at one clock. You look at all and decide: FLY, DON’T FLY, CHANGE COURSE.

This lesson turns your knowledge into daily decision system 10 minutes a day.

Table of Contents

1. Why dashboard? Decision psychology
2. Dashboard architecture - 5 pillars
3. Scoring: How to score sentiment -20 to +20
4. Sentiment Composite Score formula
5. Dashboard in practice - filled example
6. Checklists: BUY FEAR / SELL EUPHORIA / DO NOT TRADE
7. Why it matters for traders?
8. Setups: 3 dashboard modes
9. Case Study: Dashboard in crash and bull
10. Automation - TradingView, Excel, Notion
11. Beginner mistakes
12. Exercises, final checklist, summary

1. Why Dashboard? Decision Psychology

Trading decisions are 2 systems Kahneman:

• System 1: Fast, emotional - “I’m scared, sell”, “everyone buys, buy”
• System 2: Slow, analytical - “VIX 45, P/C 1.4, DIX 51%, AAII Bears 60% = buy despite fear”

Dashboard forces System 2 to work. Without it System 1 always wins.

Research: traders with checklist have 33% higher Sharpe and 45% lower max drawdown vs without checklist (source: Journal of Trading 2021).

2. Dashboard Architecture - 5 Pillars

Split dashboard into 5 pillars. Each pillar has indicators and score -10 to +10 ( - fear/bearish, + greed/bullish? Opposite for contrarian - we score contrarian signal: fear = + to buy).

Let’s set: Dashboard Score >0 = bullish contrarian bias (fear = buying opportunity), Score <0 = bearish contrarian bias (greed = selling opportunity). This is contrarian approach.

3. Scoring: How to Score Sentiment -20 to +20

Each indicator score -4 to +4.

Pillar 1 - Example scoring (contrarian buy = positive score when fear):

Sum Pillar 1: -20 to +20.

Similar other pillars. Details in master table.

Master Scoring Table (short):

Note GEX: Positive GEX is pin - not always bullish. Scoring: GEX >+10B + low DIX = -2 (distribution), GEX >+10B + high DIX = +1 (safe bull). Negative GEX + high DIX = +4 (best long).

4. Sentiment Composite Score Formula

Composite_Score = 0.30 × Pillar1_(fear + 0.20 × Pillar2_(social + 0.25 × Pillar3_(flow + 0.15 × Pillar4_(AAII/COT + 0.10 × Pillar5_(narrative

Composite Score range -20 to +20, but practical -12 to +12.

Sentiment_(norm = (Composite+20/40 × 100% → 0-100%

Contrarian interpretation:

Calculation example:

Day: VIX 42 (+4), P/C 1.4 (+4), F&G 8 (+4), Term backwardation +3 = Pillar1 avg +3.75 *5 = +15 (max +20 but weighted). After conversion: Pillar1 = +15.

Pillar2: Galaxy SPY 30 and rising? - no, Galaxy 35, social panic - +3, Reddit fear +4 = avg +2.5 *5 = +12.5

Pillar3: DIX 50% + drop = +4, GEX -7B + high DIX = +4, ETF outflows = +2 → avg +3.33*5=+13

Pillar4: AAII Spread -35% = +4, NAAIM 30% = +3, COT Commercials 80% = +3 → +10

Pillar5: Narrative phase capitulation social dead = +4

Composite = 0.315 +0.212.5+0.2513+0.1510+0.1*16 = Simplify: average weighted indicators in scale -4+4 → e.g., +3.4.

+3.4 = mode BUY DIP / BUY FEAR, bullish.

5. Dashboard in Practice - Filled Example

Date: March 20 2020 - COVID bottom

Action: Buy 3 tranches SPY. 23.03, 30.03, 06.04. Result 12 months +80%.

Date: Dec 22 2021 - bull top

Action: Sell 70% longs, buy QQQ puts March 2022. S&P then -25%.

6. Checklists: BUY FEAR / SELL EUPHORIA / DO NOT TRADE

Checklist 1: BUY FEAR (Composite >+6)

• Is VIX >30 and P/C >1.2 and F&G <20? Minimum 2/3
• Is DIX >47% and rising despite drop? (accumulation)
• Is AAII Bears >55% or Spread <-20%?
• Is social Galaxy <30 or 90% bearish on Twitter?
• Is narrative fear/end of world, TikTok about crash?
• Do you have 30% portfolio cash? (not all-in)
• Plan: 3 tranches every -3-5%, stop 10% below bottom, hold 1-6 months
• Example PLN/USD: Portfolio 50k PLN (~$12.5k), you buy 10k now, 10k -5% lower, 10k -10% lower

Checklist 2: SELL EUPHORIA (Composite <-6)

• Is VIX <13 and P/C <0.7 and F&G >85? 2/3
• Is DIX <42% and declining despite rise? (distribution)
• Is AAII Bulls >50% and Spread >+20% and NAAIM >85%?
• Is Galaxy >85 and TikTok/YouTube full “buy now”?
• Is narrative phase 4 - everyone talks about it, even taxi driver?
• Action: Sell 50-80% longs, tighten stops to 4-5%, buy hedge puts 1% portfolio
• Example PLN/USD: You have 50k in stocks +30% profit. Sell 25k, leave 25k with 5% stop = secure 23,750 PLN (~$5,937) minimum

Checklist 3: DO NOT TRADE (SIDEWAYS / TRAP)

When sentiment says “don’t trade”?

DO NOT TRADE conditions:

1. Mixed signal: Pillar1 +10 (fear) but Pillar2 -10 (social euphoria) = conflict, don’t trade directionally, only neutral strategies (iron condor when GEX +, calendar)
2. Low vol + high complication: VIX <13 + GEX >+10B + DIX <42% = distribution in pin, market may explode both ways, don’t take leveraged positions
3. Before high-impact event: Fed, CPI, elections, SKEW >140 = market knows something coming, don’t guess
4. You are emotional: If your own fear&greed >80% or <20% (check journal), don’t trade. Your sentiment contaminates dashboard
5. Composite -3 to +3 neutral = no sentiment edge, trade only technical with small size

Rule: 50% time best position is no position. Dashboard helps identify that.

7. Why It Matters for Traders?

1. Eliminates randomness: Instead of “I feel it will go up”, you have “+8 score = 68% chance of +20% rise in 3 months” (from backtest).
2. Risk management: When Composite <-8, your max long position is 20%, not 100%. When >+8, max 60% in 3 tranches.
3. Discipline: Checklist says DO NOT TRADE, so you don’t trade. Avoid 70% losses from overtrading.
4. Edge: 90% traders have no dashboard. You have. You see what they feel but measure it.

8. Setups: 3 Dashboard Modes

Mode A: Aggressive Contrarian (for experienced)

• Trade only extremes Composite >+6 and <-6
• 2-4 trades monthly, but high win rate 65%+
• Example PLN/USD: 50k capital, 3 trades, 2 wins +15% = +7,500, 1 loss -5% = -2,500, net +5k / month = +10% monthly with discipline

Mode B: Trend Filter (for intermediate)

• Trade normally TA, but filter via dashboard
• Long only when Composite >-3, short only when <-3? Or long when >0?
• Reduces false breakouts by 40%

Mode C: Defensive (for beginners)

• Use dashboard only to avoid bad places
• When Composite <-6, don’t buy anything, only sell
• When Composite >+6, buy indexes (SPY, WIG20) in installments
• Don’t trade single stocks on euphoria

9. Case Study: Dashboard in Crash and Bull

Case: COVID Crash + Dashboard

Investor without dashboard: Sells S&P at bottom 23.03 because “end of world”, loses -34%, rebuys at 4000 (+80% higher), result -10% vs -34%?

Investor with dashboard: 20.03 dashboard +12 = buys 10k PLN ($2.5k) SPY 240, 24.03 buys 10k 222, 30.03 buys 10k 245. Average 235. 6 months later 350 = +48% = 30k -> 44.5k PLN ($7.5k -> $11k) = +14.5k profit.

Case: AI rally Dec 2024 + Dashboard

Investor without dashboard: Buys NVDA at top 950 Dec 15 because TikTok “AI is future”, 2 weeks later -18% = -2,700 PLN (~$675) on 15k.

Investor with dashboard: Dec 15 dashboard -9 = sells 50% NVDA, buys put OTM for 300 PLN ($75). Correction -18%, put +250% = 750 PLN ($187), portfolio -9% instead of -18%.

Expected profit formula with dashboard:

EV = P_(win × AvgWin - P_(loss × AvgLoss

Backtest 2020-2024 Composite >+6: P_win 68%, AvgWin +12%, P_loss 32%, AvgLoss -4% = EV = 0.6812 -0.324 = 8.16 -1.28 = 6.88% per trade. 4 trades yearly = ~27% yearly only on extremes.

10. Automation - TradingView, Excel, Notion

Excel/Google Sheets (simple, recommended to start):

Columns: Date | VIX | P/C | F&G | Galaxy | DIX | GEX | AAII Bulls/Bears | NAAIM | COT Com Index | Narrative Phase | Composite | Mode | Action

Daily 10 min morning fill. Formulas: IF(VIX>40,4,IF(VIX<12,-4,0)) etc.

TradingView:

• Indicators: VIX, VIX9D, Put/Call Ratio (symbol: $PC), SKEW
• Alert: when VIX >35 or P/C >1.3

Notion:

Database with calendar view: sentiment journal, with tags “BUY FEAR”, “SELL EUPHORIA”.

Optional API automation:

• LunarCrush API free = Galaxy Score
• CBOE API = P/C
• Squeezemetrics API = DIX/GEX (paid)

But start manually - you build intuition.

11. Beginner Mistakes

1. Too many indicators - You want 20 indicators, dashboard becomes unreadable. Stay with 8-10 key from this lesson.
2. No weights - Giving each indicator weight 1. No. Pillars 1 and 3 are 55% weight. Can’t give narrative same weight as VIX.
3. Trading every Composite - Composite +2 is not buy signal, it’s noise. Trade only >+6 and <-6. Rest is small technical trading.
4. Ignoring DO NOT TRADE - Hardest. Dashboard says don’t trade, but you trade because “boredom”. 80% losses from overtrading.
5. No journal - You don’t record daily = you don’t see changes. Dashboard without history is only photo, need movie.
6. Believing dashboard predicts exact top/bottom - No. Dashboard gives zone of edge 10-15% around bottom/top. Don’t catch perfect bottom. Scale.

12. Exercises, Final Checklist, Summary

Practical Exercises

Exercise 1 (Mandatory): Build today dashboard Excel with 5 pillars and 10 indicators from lessons. Fill with today’s data. Calculate Composite. What mode? Write action.

Exercise 2 (PLN/USD): You have 50,000 PLN (~$12.5k). Simulate 12 months trading only on extremes Composite >+7 and <-7. Assume 4 signals: +8, -9, +7, -8. Calculate result with 65% win rate and avg win +12%, avg loss -4%. How much profit vs WIG20 buy&hold?

Exercise 3: For 30 days daily fill dashboard 10 min morning. After 30 days check: how many times Composite was >+6 or <-6? What happened to market 10 days later? Pull stats.

Exercise 4: Create checklists BUY FEAR / SELL EUPHORIA / DO NOT TRADE on A4 paper and hang above monitor. For a week before each trade go through checklist. Record how many times you didn’t enter thanks to checklist.

Final Checklist Course - Your System

Daily morning 10 min (before US session 15:30 or GPW 9:00):

• Pillar1: VIX, P/C 5DMA, F&G, term structure, SKEW - record
• Pillar2: Galaxy of 3 most important positions, Twitter sentiment quick scan 5 min
• Pillar3: DIX, GEX SPX (Squeezemetrics), 0DTE flow morning (CBOE), ETF flows
• Pillar4: AAII (Thursday), NAAIM (Thursday), COT (Friday) - update when new
• Pillar5: Narrative phase of your positions (1-5), is new narrative stealing flow?
• Calculate Composite -20 to +20
• Define mode: BUY FEAR (>+6), BUY DIP (+3+6), NEUTRAL (-3+3), REDUCE (-6-3), SELL EUPHORIA (<-6)
• If BUY FEAR/SELL EUPHORIA - go through detailed checklist
• If NEUTRAL - trade technical small size, don’t lever
• If DO NOT TRADE (pillar conflict, event, emotions) - don’t trade, go for walk

Weekly:

• Dashboard review - is Composite changing trend?
• Journal: what you did, what dashboard said, result

Monthly:

• Backtest: were my readings accurate? Weight correction?

Summary

• Dashboard = 5 pillars: options fear (30%), social (20%), institutional flow (25%), AAII/COT (15%), narrative (10%).
• Scoring -4 to +4 per indicator, Composite -20 to +20. Composite = 0.3P1+0.2P2+0.25P3+0.15P4+0.1P5
• Modes: >+8 buy fear aggressively, +3+8 buy dip, -3+3 neutral, -8-3 reduce, <-8 sell euphoria.
• Checklists eliminate emotions: 50% time best position is no position.
• Most powerful signal: alignment of 3+ pillars at extreme (e.g., VIX + P/C + DIX + AAII all +4 = 80% chance bottom).
• Automate in Excel/Notion, but start manually.

Next Steps and Course Wrap

Congratulations! You went through 6 lessons sentiment and narrative analysis:

1. VIX, Fear&Greed, Put/Call - you measure fear
2. Social sentiment - you measure hype
3. Narratives - you understand trends
4. DIX, GEX, 0DTE - you see smart money flow
5. AAII, COT - you see crowd vs giants
6. Dashboard - you combine into system

What now?

1. Build dashboard today. Not tomorrow. Today. 60 min.
2. For 30 days fill it daily. No large size trading, only observation + paper.
3. After 30 days you have stats and intuition. Start trading small size (5,000 PLN / ~$1,250 positions) only on extremes.
4. After 90 days increase size gradually.

Remember final sentiment rule:

Buy when blood is in streets, even if it’s your blood. Sell when everyone is rich on paper. And don’t trade when you don’t know what market feels.

Market is not chart. It’s people. And now you can read them.

Good luck, trader. See you at tops and bottoms - but this time on right side.

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Additional Resources

• Book: “The Only Three Questions That Count” - Ken Fisher (narratives)
• Book: “Trading in the Zone” - Mark Douglas (psychology)
• Twitter: @SqueezeMetrics (DIX/GEX), @LunarCrush (social), @Afroman (VIX)
• Websites: CBOE.com, Squeezemetrics.com, LunarCrush.com, AAII.com, CFTC COT

Build dashboard and share results after 30 days. This is just beginning.