Fundamental analysis and macro

A track about fundamental analysis: how macro data, central bank decisions and company results create a context of volatility — without promising direction from a statement. Fundamentals do not replace a risk plan; they help you avoid trading blind around the news and sessions that genuinely move the Polish currency, indices and currencies.

For a trader from Poland, transmission is especially important: interest rates, USD/EUR and the US session. You do not have to be an economist. You do have to know when to raise caution, cut size or stand aside. That is the honest role of fundamentals in a trading process — risk context, not a headline prophecy or a sure thing from social media.

The material is educational. We do not recommend specific trades around CPI, NFP or central bank decisions. We teach a process: preparation before the event, the decision on exposure, the journal entry. A story told after the fact, when everyone claims they knew, is not edge.

Who this is for

For people who already understand orders and chart basics and want to connect price with the calendar. Useful for forex and stock traders and for anyone who reacts emotionally to headlines. If you are looking for a secret CPI indicator — there is none here; there is a process for reading context and a decision to trade or not to trade.

It also suits swing traders who hold positions through releases and want to manage risk around events deliberately, instead of guessing the print live without an exit plan. The track also helps people who run away from news but have no clear rule for when to stand aside.

What you will learn

• Which macro data most often move the market and why timing matters
• How to think about central banks and interest rates without political speculation
• The basics of company analysis: context, not full equity research
• Risk-on and risk-off as a map of sentiment, not an automatic signal
• How to use the economic calendar in practice: risk windows, size and avoiding chaos
• How to connect macro with the decision to trade or not to trade today
• How not to confuse a story told after the fact with preparation before an event
• How to account for wider spreads and slippage around high-impact news

Prerequisites

Before this track, complete Technical analysis and, earlier, Market foundations. Without a shared chart language, fundamentals easily turn into a story told after the fact. It also helps to know the concepts of spread and slippage — news increases execution costs.

After the lessons, write three events from the coming week in your journal together with a decision: trade normally, reduce size or stand aside. That matters more than predicting the direction of CPI. Also compare how your broker behaves around high-impact news, looking at spread, limits and execution.

Glossary

• Spread
• Slippage
• Broker
• KNF
• IV

FAQ

Do fundamentals give you a trade entry?

Rather a context of risk and volatility. An entry still requires a plan: setup, stop, size. News without a process is gambling with a calendar, not fundamental analysis. Education is not a buy or sell signal.

Do I have to read full central bank minutes?

Not to start with. It is enough to understand what the market is pricing in — rates and the expected path — and when releases increase slippage. Deeper reading of statements only makes sense once you have a clear risk process.

How does this apply to a trader from Poland?

USD, EUR and the decisions of the Fed and the ECB affect local instruments and sentiment. Think about transmission — currency, indices, costs — instead of one magic domestic indicator. The global calendar is part of everyday reality, even if you trade the GPW.