Social Sentiment - Twitter, Reddit, LunarCrush, Santiment

Introduction: Market Before It Becomes Market

13 January 2021, 08:23 UTC. On Reddit r/wallstreetbets post appears: “GME - short squeeze incoming, 140% short interest”. LunarCrush Galaxy Score for GME: 45/100. Mentions: 800/day.

28 January 2021, 14:11 UTC. GME Galaxy Score: 98/100. Mentions: 180,000/day. Price: $483 (+2400%). CNN talks about “retail revolt”.

Who entered on 13 January on LunarCrush data, made 24x. Who entered 28 January on TV headlines, lost 80% in a week.

Social sentiment is radar that sees rocket before launch. Newspaper headlines see only smoke after launch.

Table of Contents

1. Why social sentiment rules in 2026?
2. Data sources - where to listen to crowd
3. Social Score and Galaxy Score formula
4. Twitter/X - how to read $ cashtags
5. Reddit WSB - anatomy of pump
6. LunarCrush, Santiment, StockTwits - comparison
7. Filtering bots and fake hype
8. Why it matters for traders?
9. Practical setups
10. Case Study: Dogecoin, AI, CD Projekt
11. Beginner mistakes
12. Exercises, checklist, summary

1. Why Social Sentiment Rules in 2026?

In 2020 social sentiment was curiosity. In 2026 it’s main driver:

• 52% volume in crypto comes from decisions made after seeing post on X/TikTok (Binance Survey 2025)
• Market making algorithms track Twitter API and adjust prices in milliseconds
• ETFs and institutions have “social listening” teams - buy narratives before fundamentals
• Meme coins - 100% price is social sentiment, 0% fundamentals

If you trade meme stocks (CD Projekt 440 PLN, Allegro, US meme), crypto or small caps, ignoring social = portfolio death.

2. Data Sources - Where to Listen to Crowd

Golden rule: Twitter gives speed, Reddit gives depth, LunarCrush gives aggregation, TikTok gives sell signal.

3. Social Score and Galaxy Score Formula

Base math of social sentiment:

Social_Score = (Mentions × Sentiment × Engagement/Volume_(market

Where:

• Mentions = number posts/tweets about asset
• Sentiment = -1 to +1 (VADER, BERT model) - average sentiment
• Engagement = likes + retweets + comments / mentions
• Volume_market = trading volume - normalization

LunarCrush Galaxy Score (proprietary, but approximation):

GalaxyScore = 0.4 × SocialScore_(norm + 0.3 × PriceMomentum + 0.2 × Correlation_(social-price + 0.1 × SpamFilter

Galaxy Score 0-100. >75 = strong hype, <20 = dead coin.

Santiment Social Volume vs Price Divergence:

Look for divergence: price rises, Social Volume drops = no confirmation, possible top. Price drops, Social Volume rises = panic, possible bottom.

Divergence = (Δ Price/Δ SocialVolume

When Divergence >2 (price +20%, social -5%) = unsustainable rise.

4. Twitter/X - How to Read $Cashtags

Twitter is fastest bloodstream of market.

How to use:

1. Search “$AAPL” or “$BTC” - cashtags filter noise
2. Check Latest tab, not Top
3. Evaluate 20 recent tweets: what % bullish, bearish, neutral?
4. Check accounts: real traders or bots (<100 followers, 0 photo, tweet every 10 sec = bot)

Indicators to track:

• Tweet volume / hour - sudden spike 300%+ = something happening
• Sentiment ratio - Bull/(Bull+Bear) - >80% = extreme greed
• Influencer activity - are large accounts (100k+ followers) starting to talk about asset?
• Bot ratio - LunarCrush shows % bots

Example PLN/USD: CD Projekt before Witcher premiere. Usually 50 mentions $OTM.PL daily. Suddenly 500 mentions, bullish sentiment 85%, gaming influencers tweeting. Price rises 5% daily for 5 days. Social leads price by 2-3 days. When TikTok starts making videos “CD Projekt is Polish NVIDIA”, it’s sell signal.

5. Reddit WSB - Anatomy of Pump

Reddit is not Twitter. Pumps are planned there.

Pump cycle Reddit:

1. DD (Deep Dive) - someone posts analysis: “Allegro has 40% short interest, 3 days to cover”
2. Quiet accumulation - post has 50 upvotes, technical comments
3. Breakout - post hits frontpage, 5k upvotes in 1h
4. FOMO - 50k upvotes, mainstream media writes, everyone buys
5. Dump - old heads sell to newcomers, -70% in 2 days

How to measure:

• Use RedditMetis or subreddit stats
• Track upvote velocity: growth from 100/h to 2000/h = explosion
• Read comments: when comments are “TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀” not analysis, it’s late phase
• Check WSB mentions tracker (e.g., Ape Wisdom)

Pump phase table Reddit:

6. LunarCrush, Santiment, StockTwits - Comparison

How to use LunarCrush in practice:

1. Ranking AltRank - shows which coins have highest social volume vs market cap - find hidden gems
2. Galaxy Score <30 and rising 3 days in a row + price flat = accumulation
3. Galaxy Score >90 and social dominance >3% = overcrowded, sell

Numerical example PLN/USD:

You have 15,000 PLN (~$3,750) for crypto. LunarCrush shows:

• Coin A: Galaxy 92, Social Volume +400% in 24h, Price +80% - don’t buy, FOMO
• Coin B: Galaxy 35 -> 52 -> 61 over 5 days, Social Volume +60% daily, Price +5% - buy for 5,000 PLN (~$1,250), early stage
• Coin B after 2 weeks Galaxy 88, you sell 70% = +180% = 5,000 -> 14,000 PLN (~$3,500), leave rest

That’s system.

7. Filtering Bots and Fake Hype

90% of “hype” is bots and paid shills.

Bot signals:

• Accounts <30 days, <50 followers, tweet only about 1 coin
• Same text from different accounts
• Excessive emoji and “100x”, “moon”
• Mentions spike at 3 AM UTC (Asian bot farms)
• No engagement (0 likes) with 1000 mentions

How to filter:

• LunarCrush has “Bot Score” - reject >40% bots
• Santiment has “Spam filter”
• Yourself: check 10 random tweets - if 7 are bots, skip narrative
• Compare social volume with real exchange volume - if social +500%, but volume +10%, it’s fake

8. Why It Matters for Traders?

1. Lead: Price is effect, social is cause. You see cause 2-72h earlier.
2. Confirmation: Technical breakout + social volume increase = real breakout. Breakout without social = fakeout.
3. End signal: When hairdresser asks about Dogecoin and TikTok full of videos “how to buy SHIB”, it’s not beginning, it’s end.
4. Position management: Galaxy Score >85 = time to take 50% profit, not add.

9. Practical Setups

Setup 1: Early Narrative Hunter

Conditions:

• Galaxy Score rising from <40 to >55 over 3 days
• Social Volume +80% vs 30d average
• Price +<10% (not broken out yet)
• Bot ratio <25% Action: Buy for 1/3 position (e.g., 5,000 PLN / $1,250 from 15,000 PLN / $3,750). Add when price +15% and Galaxy >70. Sell 50% when Galaxy >85.

Setup 2: Euphoria Short / Sell

Conditions:

• Galaxy >90, Social Dominance >5% (coin occupies 5% of all crypto social)
• Twitter sentiment >90% bullish
• TikTok views about coin >10M daily
• Price +200% in 7 days Action: Sell 70-100% position. If stocks, buy 2-week OTM puts.

Setup 3: Divergence - Hidden Accumulation

Conditions:

• Price -20% in 10 days
• Social Volume -60% (nobody talks, everyone gave up)
• Santiment Social Volume at 30-day low
• However on-chain accumulation rises (Santiment) Action: Buy contrarian, because social capitulation = bottom.

10. Case Study: 3 Narratives

Case 1: Dogecoin 2021

• Dec 2020: Galaxy 28, mentions 500/day, price $0.004
• Jan 2021: Elon tweets, mentions 50k/day, Galaxy 88, price $0.07 (+1650%)
• May 2021: TikTok 100M views “DOGE to $1”, Galaxy 96, price $0.73, then -80% Lesson: Buy narrative, sell TikTok.

Case 2: AI Narrative 2023-2024

• Nov 2022: ChatGPT launch, AI mentions +3000%
• Jan 2023: LunarCrush AI category social +500%, NVIDIA Galaxy 60 -> 75
• Mar 2024: Galaxy AI stocks >90, everyone says “AI will change world”, NVIDIA PE 70 Social trader: Bought NVDA when Galaxy 60 (Jan 2023, $140), sold half when Galaxy 92 (Mar 2024, $950) = +580% in 14 months. On 10,000 PLN ($2,500) = 68,000 PLN ($17k).

Case 3: CD Projekt - Polish example

• Oct 2020: Cyberpunk hype, Polish Twitter/X +500% mentions CDR, StockTwits bullish 92%, price 430 PLN (~$107)
• Dec 2020: Premiere flop, mentions still high but sentiment -70% bearish
• Feb 2021: Mentions -80%, price 180 PLN (~$45) (-58%) Lesson: Social hype before premiere = sell news. After flop, when social dies, buy.

11. Beginner Mistakes

1. Chasing Galaxy 90+ - You buy top. Galaxy 90 is not buy, it’s sell signal.
2. Ignoring bots - You buy coin pumped by bot farm, zero real people.
3. Confusing volume with sentiment - Bearish mentions increase is also volume increase, but not bullish.
4. No price-social context - Social alone without price is noise. Always look at correlation.
5. FOMO from TikTok - If you saw coin on TikTok, you’re 2 weeks late. TikTok is exit liquidity for early.
6. Not using divergence - Price rising without social = fake institutional breakout that will dump soon.

12. Exercises, Checklist, Summary

Practical Exercises

Exercise 1: Create LunarCrush free. Watch top 10 Galaxy Score for 7 days. Daily record score and price. Which coins rose after Galaxy rise, and which fell despite high Galaxy?

Exercise 2 (PLN/USD): Pick 3 Polish companies (CDR, KGHM, PKN ORLEN). For 5 days measure Twitter mentions (search “$CDR” or “CD Projekt”) - count manually bullish/bearish tweets. Compare with price. Is correlation?

Exercise 3: Find coin with Galaxy 40-55 rising 3 days straight. Simulate buying for 2,000 PLN (~$500). Set sale rules (50% at Galaxy 85, rest when Galaxy drops 20 pts). Track 2 weeks.

Exercise 4: Search TikTok “#crypto” and check top 5 coins. Then check their Galaxy Score and price last 30 days. Does TikTok show beginnings or ends of trends?

Checklist Social Sentiment

Before entering hype-based position:

• Galaxy Score: <50 early, 50-75 momentum, >85 euphoria/exit?
• Social Volume vs 30d avg: + how many %?
• Sentiment bullish %: >80% = overheated
• Bot ratio: <30%?
• Correlation with price: does price confirm social? Is there divergence?
• TikTok phase: already on TikTok/YouTube thumbnail “100x”? If yes, don’t buy
• Influencers: are big ones just starting to talk (buy) or talking for a week (sell)?

Summary

• Social sentiment leads price by 2h to 2 weeks.
• Twitter = speed, Reddit = depth, LunarCrush = aggregate, TikTok = sell signal.
• Formula: Social_Score = (Mentions × Sentiment × Engagement/Volume
• Galaxy <50 + rising = opportunity. Galaxy >85 = take profits.
• 70% hype is bots - filter!
• Best profit: buy early narrative (Galaxy 40-60), sell TikTok (Galaxy 90+).

Next Steps

You have tools to measure fear (Lesson 01) and hype (Lesson 02). Now we combine into most powerful concept: market narratives. How narrative about AI, halving, war, ETF creates trillion worth trend? And how to recognize moment when narrative dies?

Go to 03_market_narratives_ai_halving_wars.md.

Remember: Market is stories. People buy stories, not charts. Your job is to hear story as one of first and sell when it’s told on morning TV.